cryptography
Shor describes efficient quantum factoring
The algorithm establishes the theoretical route by which a sufficiently capable fault-tolerant quantum computer could attack RSA and discrete-log systems.
SIAM · primary record ↗Historical intelligence timeline
THE ROAD
TO Q-DAY.
Observable milestones in quantum capability and cryptographic readiness. Filter by signal type; follow every entry to its source.
standard
NIST opens the PQC standardization process
The international process begins evaluating public-key algorithms designed to resist both classical and quantum attacks.
NIST · primary record ↗standard
NIST announces its first selected algorithms
CRYSTALS-Kyber, CRYSTALS-Dilithium, SPHINCS+, and Falcon advance toward standards and complementary use cases.
NIST · primary record ↗standard
FIPS 203, 204, and 205 are finalized
ML-KEM, ML-DSA, and SLH-DSA become ready for implementation. NIST urges organizations to begin migration.
NIST · primary record ↗policy
NIST publishes its transition proposal
IR 8547 outlines an expected path to deprecate and remove quantum-vulnerable algorithms by 2035, with higher-risk systems moving earlier.
NIST · primary record ↗quantum
Below-threshold surface-code memory demonstrated
Google Quantum AI reports that logical errors fall as code distance grows on Willow, a meaningful error-correction milestone—not a cryptanalytic break.
Nature · primary record ↗standard
HQC selected as a backup KEM
NIST selects a code-based backup for general encryption, adding mathematical diversity to the standards pipeline.
NIST · primary record ↗cryptography
RSA-2048 resource estimate drops below one million noisy qubits
A new preprint substantially reduces the estimated physical-qubit count under the paper's stated assumptions, while extending projected runtime to under a week.
Craig Gidney · primary record ↗standard
HAWK is withdrawn after a new attack
A candidate signature scheme is removed from consideration. NIST states that the finding does not affect the finalized ML-KEM or ML-DSA standards.
NIST · primary record ↗